The Columbia Paper 2023, June 15

By DEBORAH E. LANS

GHENT –“Money Migration,” a report just issued by the non-profit Pattern for Progress, documents that the migration into the twin counties during the Covid-19 pandemic “accelerated the forces of gentrification” by bringing a wealthier population into the area. The report relied on a particular set of IRS data that lags in publication and thus ended with 2020. Separately, sales tax revenue for Columbia County for the period 2021-present has been softening year-over-year, whereas it has held strong in Greene County, prompting the question whether the gentrification trend is continuing and, if so, where.

In May 2023 Pattern issued a report (“Moving In, Moving Out”) that analyzed the net in-migration to the Hudson Valley during the pandemic, finding that there was a roughly 60,000 person net gain during that period. For the 25 years before the pandemic the Hudson Valley as a whole lost more people to out-migration than it gained by in-migration – some 134,505 people in all. That trend was changing in the twin counties even before the pandemic. Columbia County began seeing more people move in than moved out in 2018, a trend that has been continuing, and in Greene County in-migration has exceeded out-migration since 2015.

Migration is not to be confused with population growth or decline, which also factors in births and deaths. The population of Columbia County has hovered around 60,000 since 1970. Greene county’s population was 33,136 in 1970 and has been around 47,000 since at least 2019.

Pattern’s June 2024 report focused on a more narrow question: the income levels of those migrating in and out of the area in 2020. The report concluded that the pandemic “shifted the geographic incomes in the Hudson Valley…For several of our counties – Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Sullivan and Ulster – the annual amount of income that moved into their communities increased by as much as tenfold compared to the pre-pandemic baseline.”

Columbia County experienced the most dramatic change on a percentage basis. Per the report: “those who moved into Columbia County during the peak of the pandemic reported an average household AGI (adjusted gross income) of $166,107, while those who moved out reported an average AGI of $68,812. That means the new residents of Columbia County made 240% more than the people who moved out.” Overall, the net change in annual AGI for the county attributable to migration was $202.2 million. (The county population as a whole had an AGI of $2.3 billion in 2020-21.) The change was 9%.

In Greene County migration increased the AGI by $82.7 million (The county population as a whole had an AGI of $1.4 billion.) The change was 6%.

What do these numbers mean?

Assuming the change is permanent (about which, more below), a number of things. On the plus side, greater income and an influx of newcomers should mean that new businesses also open, with downtowns revitalizing and new employment opportunities created. The Pattern report found, in fact, that “new business starts climbed substantially in every county in the Hudson Valley during the pandemic.” With more expendable income in the area, businesses of all kinds should also benefit. The ability to work remotely also enhances the influx of newcomers and new businesses.

On the flip side, though, the inflow has exacerbated the housing crisis as home prices and rents both soared, putting affordable housing out of reach for many. Moreover, the inflation of prices has been so significant that “filtering” has not occurred. Chris Brown, the county’s Housing Development Coordinator, explains that, ordinarily, when a homeowner moves to or builds a new, more expensive home, he/she leaves a less expensive one available, and so a less monied family moves there, vacating a less expensive home for yet another family to move into. So, in a sense, there is a cascade of benefits. But in Columbia County recently, the upsurge in housing prices has been so extreme that ordinary working families cannot afford to buy into the market. Instead, younger, working families are leaving the county to find affordable housing.

Also, throughout the Hudson Valley many of the newcomers are older or choose private schooling for their children, which may contribute to declining public school enrollments and which increases the portion of the population “who do not have a direct connection to public schools” according to school superintendents interviewed by Pattern.

Has the change endured since the pandemic and will it continue? Pattern’s President Adam Bosch makes several points. First, Pattern is poised to issue an updated “Moving In, Moving Out” report, which will help to answer that question. Second, while the momentum of change may slow, housing prices remain significantly higher than before the pandemic. Remote workers continue to move into the area, and they tend to bring higher incomes with them.

Other data confuse the question whether and where the outmigration will last. The Pattern report shows that the overwhelming majority of the inflow to Columbia and Greene counties came from New York City. A December 2023 report issued by the Office of the New York State Comptroller found that the dramatic outflux of city families in 2020 eased significantly in 2021 (per the latest data then available).

Sales tax data also suggests that, at least in Columbia County, the wealth of the population may be moderating again. In 2021, statewide sales tax revenues increased 19.1%, with Columbia County seeing a 22.8% increase and Greene County at about the state average.

In 2022, both Columbia and Greene counties saw sales tax revenues increase, but not as much as the statewide average. In 2023, when the statewide average increased 4.2%, Columbia County saw a much smaller, and modest, 0.3% rise. In contrast, Greene County experienced a 5.0% increase. In the first quarter of this year, Columbia County in fact saw a decline in sales tax revenues of 4.8%, although Greene County saw a 5.9% increase.

There are, of course, many possible interpretations of this data. Are Columbia County shoppers returning to box stores, most of which are in other counties (including Greene)? Are families that only spent weekends upstate formerly and are now full-time residents shifting their dining patterns, staying home more often? Are purchasing habits affected by inflation? Is migration shifting to the west side of the Hudson?

Home sales data suggests that, in fact, the momentum of change may be shifting to Greene County. In the first quarter of 2024 the median sales price of homes increased 7% (to $319,000) in Greene County but declined slightly (by 3%) in Columbia County, to $420,000.

Pattern’s updated “Moving In, Moving Out” report will be the subject of next week’s article.