Lively livestock squeals the show

By DEBORAH E. LANS

GHENT—It’s happening worldwide. From 1950 to 2021 the birth rate declined 81% in China, 63% in India and 52% in the United States, as reflected in United Nations (U.N.) data.

The trend is also evident in the Hudson Valley, where Columbia County is a leading example.

Between 1997 and 2019 (a much shorter period than the U.N. tracked), the county saw a 27.8% decline in births. Only Putnam County saw a greater decline. Greene County was close behind Columbia, with a 26.6% drop.

Why is this happening? According to the U.N., birth rates generally decline as socioeconomic development rises. Growing urbanization, higher living standards, rising costs, smaller living spaces, access to family planning, and a greater focus on career are all factors contributing to smaller families.

A recent study by Pattern for Progress (Pattern), “The Great People Shortage and Its Effects on the Hudson Valley,” has collected and analyzed the data. In the Hudson Valley, the steep decline in birth rates has combined with the steady out-migration of residents to create an overall drop in our population. Every year in the last 25, except for 2018/19, more people have left the area than have migrated in—a loss of 134,505 people across nine counties.

The study finds that the key drivers of out-migration are housing-related (nearly 50%), family-related, and job-related. In particular, the lack of affordable housing is a principal underlying cause of out-migration.

Columbia and Greene counties have slightly bucked that trend of late. From 2015 to 2021, Columbia saw a net gain in migration in four of six years, of more than 900 people. Greene County gained in net migration (totaling about 1,500) in all six years studied.

So, does the gain in net migration offset the decline in births? No, because when combined with deaths, Columbia and Greene counties are still losing population overall—every year of the last 20.

Moreover, the age of our population is shifting. In the last decade, according to Pattern, the percentage of the population under 19 has shrunk and the percentage over 60 has grown. That change—sometimes called a “silver tsunami”—is consistent with recently-released federal census data, which show that the median age of the country’s population increased in the past two-plus decades (2000-2022) from 30 to 38.9. But, Columbia County is even older, with a median age of 48.5 and more than 26.5 % of its population over 65. Greene County is not far behind.

What do all these numbers mean?
On the economic front, fewer younger people means that we will increasingly see labor shortages with resultant upward wage pressure. There will be fewer people to perform all the jobs that anchor society—doctors, nurses, teachers, laborers, electricians, even news reporters.
The May 2023 local labor force statistics released by the state Department of Labor underscore this trend: Columbia County’s unemployment rate is 2.4%—a statewide low for counties not within a major labor area; Greene County’s rate was 3.3%.
Columbia Memorial Health CEO Dorothy Urschel notes that, like most employers, it has been more challenging to hire for all types of healthcare positions, especially since the pandemic. The health of rural hospitals is also affected. In rural areas in the Northeast where there are significant populations of Medicare beneficiaries, reimbursements do not offset expenses, creating financial strains. 
And then there’s education.  Schools have been hit hard by the challenges of hiring and retaining teachers. Further, our schools have been experiencing declining enrollments for years. When Superintendent Sal D’Angelo first joined the Chatham Central School District in 2017, the district had 1,065 students. That number is now 888—a decline that is spread across the spectrum from pre-K to 12th grade.
Declining school enrollments can lead to school closures and does lead to diminished opportunities. A high school elective that only attracts a few students may be eliminated or scheduled for alternate years. “The depth and breadth of offerings is affected.”
Benjamin Bragg, Superintendent, and Ryan Smith, Business Administrator, of the Germantown Central School District explain that both the federal and state formulas for funding schools are largely driven by student enrollment figures. Fewer students mean fewer resources, unless the local community ups its contributions through higher taxes.
Moreover, it does not follow that because enrollment declines, the costs of running a school do as well. First, as Mr. Smith notes, costs are currently rising due to inflation. Second, as Chatham’s Superintendent D’Angelo notes, the fact that you lose students does not necessarily translate to lower costs; a 30-50 student loss spread across elementary through high school grades may mean that there are smaller class sizes but not to the point of eliminating a class, or teacher, he says.
On a societal level, population decline and aging hurt as well, reducing the number of volunteers for such vital services as fire departments, ambulance corps and town governments. 
For more information on ‘The Great People Shortage and Its Effects on the Hudson Valley’ by Pattern for Progress go to pattern-for-progress.org.

Median age by community in Columbia County

By DOUG LA ROCQUE

GREENPORT – Climate change is in the news almost daily now in one form or another. From the federal government on down to local municipalities, it is a subject for discussion not only in Columbia, Greene, Albany and Rensselaer counties but around the state and the nation. The debate often includes the extent of the change, how impactful it is and what is the best way to deal with the climate issue.

Those were some of the topics discussed on Saturday, December 2 at a forum on climate change hosted by the Columbia County Board of Supervisors at Columbia-Greene Community College. County Board of Supervisors Chairman Matt Murell (R-Stockport) opened the panel by highlighting the importance of the exchange of information, understanding climate change impacts and developing the appropriate levels of response.

The panel was comprised of six people who have a hand in various programs, have educated themselves as to the impacts or have experienced climate change on a personal, agricultural or business level.

First to speak was Tara Donadio from the Capital District Regional Planning Commission, who highlighted a program launched in 2016 by New York State that awards grants to localities that earn points by making changes such as installing LED lighting, upgrading their heating systems (perhaps with the use of heat pumps) or installing solar to lower the demand on the electrical grid. These points are then translated into grants from the state to help pay for these and future projects to reduce a municipalities carbon footprint and reliance on fossil fuels. She noted the Town of New Lebanon was able to fund the installation of solar panels on the town hall roof using money from just such a grant.

One of the goals of this forum was to present different perspectives on climate change and how to react to it. The second speaker that afternoon was James Hanley of the Empire Center. He admitted climate change was a concern but questioned some of the wisdom behind the programs it has spawned. He felt some, in particular solar, were overreactions, questioning the benefit versus the results. He noted in many areas electrical companies do not have room on their grid to accept this solar generated electricity at this time. It also seems while many may support solar energy, there is the predictable community response, “no solar panels in my backyard.” He wondered how all the increased dependence on electricity will be met. If solar, wind and hydro cannot measure up to the demand, what is left. Fossil fuels?

Steve Helmin of Stop Energy Sprawl pointed out what he felt were the pitfalls of very large solar projects, especially in rural communities, such as his hometown of Glen in Montgomery County. There a firm known as ConnetGen is planning a 250-megawatt solar complex, one of 21 such large-scale projects supported by the New York State Energy Resource and Development Authority. Unlike smaller projects, towns and villages have little say in the site location and development. Those decisions are made by the state. There are often news reports about community residents banding together to fight such large-scale installations.

Liz Moran from the group EarthJustice was a strong advocate of policies to combat the climate crisis. She called for the protection of water quality, keeping public health and the environment safe from toxic chemicals and the creation of more sustainable food and farming practices. She also called for the closure of what she called New York’s hazardous waste loophole for oil and gas waste. She considered part of that effort to be the continued development of solar, wind and hydroelectric generation.

Will Yandik is a fourth generation Hudson Valley farmer, who says he has seen first-hand the impact climate change is having on farming. He indicated this includes seasonal droughts or conversely, an overabundance of rainfall. He also talked about the “one-hundred-year storms” that seemingly occur every other year now. He said as a practicing farmer he supports many of the climate change strategies and urged other farmers to improve on-farm habitat quality, but within the practical boundaries of farm profitability.

Following the presentation, the panelists spent about 30 minutes answering questions from the 60 or so people that attended the event. Some questions were directed toward a particular speaker. Others, such as to the practicality of some of the climate change proposals, generated comments from all the participants.

There were also 10 tables set up in the lobby of the college’s art center where various organizations, some represented by the day’s speakers, and others simply wished to be part of the day’s discussion.

As to the results of the forum, organizer Michael Tucker, who also serves as president and CEO of the Columbia Economic Development Corporation, was very pleased with the exchange of thoughts and ideas, and simply said the forum, “was a success.”

Reporter Doug La Rocque moderated the event.