Budget has more for strapped schools

By DEBORAH E. LANS

GHENT–Within weeks after issuing its “Money Migration” report, non-profit Pattern for Progress released “Moving In, Moving Out 2024,” an analysis of population shifts in the nine Hudson Valley counties, based on just-released 2021 and 2022 IRS filings. The new report shows that the area in general, including Columbia and Greene counties, lost population in 2021-22. In addition, although both counties saw that the incomes of those moving in exceeded the incomes of those moving out, the net gains experienced in the two counties was far smaller than in the prior year, at the height of the pandemic.

This softening trend is consistent with sales tax revenue data which, as reported in the July 4 issue of this paper (“Of Money and Migration“), showed declines during the same period in Columbia County, though not in Greene County.

While more people migrated to the nine Hudson Valley counties from New York City than moved to the city, the area continued to lose population to neighboring towns in the adjacent states of Massachusetts, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Pattern attributes the movement across the state’s borders to the fact that households can save 30-60% on property, income and sales taxes combined by moving. Similarly, many of those moving head to Florida or the Carolinas where taxes are lower.

The report also showed that, consistent with the prior year, there was a small inflow of “climate refugees” from Southern California, concerned about wildfires and water restrictions, and from water-stressed counties in Arizona and Texas – in what might be a trend given that the Hudson Valley is a “water-rich region.”

Although the net flow of residents was outbound, nevertheless the area gained income, though much more modestly than in 2020.

Columbia County suffered a net loss of residents due to migration of 166 people, and Greene County a net loss of 233 people, in 2021-22. At the same time, the average adjusted gross incomes of those moving in was greater than that of those moving out by a total of $4.8 million in Columbia County and $18.8 million in Greene County.

Notably, the positive income increases in 2021-22 were far smaller than that in 2020 (in all, $202.2 million in Columbia and $82.7 in Greene), suggesting that the effects of the pandemic are waning. In 2020 those moving into Columbia County on average had incomes nearly $100,000/year more than those moving out. In 2021-22, the gap was only about $11,000. What had been a gap of almost $40,000 in Greene County in 2020 likewise closed to $20,000 the next year.

The effect of higher taxes apparently is felt at all but the highest income levels. A study by the non-profit Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI) in December 2023 found that the top 1% of earners in the state (who earn $815,000 or more in a year) do not migrate for tax reasons. In 2022, the out-migration of the lucky 1% settled back to pre-Covid rates. By contrast, those earning $248,000 per year or less continue to move.

A further study by FPI issued in June 2024 (“Who Is Leaving”) concluded that households with young (up to age 6) children are much more likely (by 40%) to leave the state as compared to households with no or older children. Importantly, twice the number of residents are leaving the state in search of affordable housing now than did so before the pandemic. Moreover, adults aged 26-35 are twice as likely to move now than the rest of the population.

Indeed, Columbia County Housing Development Coordinator Chris Brown notes that embedded in these numbers is the very concerning trend of the greying of Columbia County’s population. He notes that there is a nearly 1 to 1 replacement ratio by which, for every 18-45 year old who moves out of the county, the county gains a resident who is 55 or older. The migration trend is especially profound given that Columbia County is already the second “oldest” county in the state (by average population age).

These figures, coupled with sales tax revenue declines, suggest that the migration and income upticks that the area, and Columbia and Greene counties in particular, saw at the height of the pandemic may not be sufficiently strong to outweigh the negative effects of the housing, child care and other affordability crises the counties suffer, with the results that both a steady decline in, and ageing of, the population will continue.

The loss of population locally mirrors a state-wide trend, and the state’s overall population decline leads to a diminished influence federally. Where once New York had 45 representatives in Congress, we now have 26, due to the decline in population here relative to gains in other areas of the country.

Moreover, as the size of the local workforce declines, it also ages. Currently, in the Hudson Valley the older part of the workforce (age 45+) outnumbers the younger portion (25-44) by 100,000 people. As older workers retire the labor pool will decline significantly unless the area reverses the forces that propel younger workers to move elsewhere. Moreover, as workers leave the state, the state’s payroll tax collections – a key revenue source – decline, creating funding challenges.

Finally, Pattern reports that the workforce is also shifting: we are losing “service workers” and gaining “knowledge workers” – a trend familiar to anyone who has found that a favorite local restaurant is now open only 3 days/week because it cannot find waitstaff.

Whether the state, county and local governments have the will to address the multiple causes of these population trends remains an open question, about which this paper will continue to report.