The Greenville Pioneer 2023, Aug. 25
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The Retired Investor: A different view on interest rates
By Bill Schmick
For Capital Region Independent Media
Scott Bessent, the nation’s new Treasury secretary, is a product of the investment world. His private sector background brings to the government a different set of tools and ideas that may lessen the burden on the Federal Reserve Bank in its fight against inflation.
For decades, politicians of both parties with few exceptions have left it up to the Federal Reserve Bank to curb inflation while maintaining employment. It has been a tough job, especially when fiscal policy is working at cross purposes with their mandate. The fly in the ointment over the last several decades has been that while the central bank has been largely insulated from political pressures and has functioned independently, the Treasury is not. It answers to the president and through him, his political party.
Fast forward to today. Most readers know the government has a big spending problem. At the same time, over the last four years, we have witnessed a rebound in inflation that climbed to as high as 9%. Massive spending programs made inflation far worse.
The Fed’s job was to reduce inflation, so it hiked interest rates while reducing the number of government bonds it purchased. It has been a long fight to quell inflation, and it is not over yet. It would have been easier if Congress and the president were willing to reduce fiscal spending. Nonetheless, the Fed had made enough progress, despite the fiscal failure to cut spending, that in September of last year, the central bank was able to cut interest rates for the first time in four years. They reduced the Federal Funds short-term interest rate by 25 basis points.
The way it works is the central bank has the power to cut interest rates on securities on the short end of the yield curve like notes, bills, etc. but not on the long end where the yields on the 5-10-20-30-year bonds are determined by the market in general. Normally, when the Fed cuts rates on the short end, bonds of longer-dated maturities fall. This time around that was not the case.
The U.S. Ten-Year Treasury bond, and bonds of lengthier maturity, failed to follow short-term bills and bonds. In fact, although the Fed has cut interest rates several times since then, longer-dated securities have risen in price. Why?
Government spending remains out of control. The nation’s deficit and debt are at record highs. If that situation continues, the bond market will continue to demand higher and higher interest payments to buy Treasury bonds. It appears the Fed can do no more in the face of the prolific spending by our elected officials.
Unlike other politicians, Bessent understands the problem. He said last week that “we are not focused on whether the Fed is going to cut.” Instead, he wants the Trump administration to reduce the yield on benchmark Ten-year, U.S. Treasury bonds through fiscal actions.
He knows that the interest rates Americans pay on mortgages, credit cards, and other kinds of loans are based on the 10-year, Treasury yield and not the Fed Funds rate.
Instead of leaving it up to the Fed, which is pushing on a string at this point, he wants to cut government spending that is a major source of inflation, debt, and the deficit. He also hopes to sustain economic growth at a 3% rate by cutting regulations and boosting energy production by 3 million barrels a day of oil equivalents. That would also raise tax revenues.
If he can accomplish that, then the bond market will take care of long-term rates all by themselves. If bondholders see that the deficit and government debt is coming down, then buying and holding long-dated Treasuries will be less risky.
To me, it is the first practical plan I have heard to reduce the national debt, which has become the nation’s number one challenge on the economic front.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by OPI. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com. for more of Bill’s insights. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
Women-owned dispensary to open Greene County’s first cannabis store
By Marlene McTigue
Capital Region Independent Media
COXSACKIE—Greene County is preparing to welcome its first recreational cannabis dispensary this fall, marking a historic moment for the area’s business landscape and community.
THTree, a women-owned and operated cannabis dispensary, has been approved by the town and is set to open at 12187 Route 9W, in the building that formerly housed a Dollar Tree. The store, owned by local entrepreneurs Brittany Palmateer and Poliany Weidman, will offer a variety of cannabis products to serve the increasing demand for legal cannabis in New York state.
Palmateer, from Athens, and Weidman, from Greenville, bring a wealth of business and compliance experience from their time in the alcohol industry. Palmateer spent 12 years working with Empire Wine and Liquor, with five of those years as a sales rep, while Weidman comes from Country Square Liquors in Greenville, which she owns with her husband, Matt.
Their shared experience in managing the regulations of government-controlled products like alcohol prepared them for the complex compliance requirements in New York’s legal cannabis market. Both women see this as a natural transition to a new but similarly regulated industry.
“This is definitely a passion project for us. Poly and I have poured everything into this business,” Palmateer said. “When recreational cannabis was legalized in 2021, we saw an opportunity to bring our knowledge of compliance and our love for Greene County together. This business is really about serving our community and helping people access safe, legal cannabis.”
The 8,000-square-foot building THTree will occupy is notably larger than many other dispensaries in New York, giving the store the space to create a unique “cannabis destination.” The interior design of the store will reflect the natural beauty of Greene County, with Palmateer and Weidman aiming to create an inviting environment that ties into the area’s local charm.
“We wanted to create a welcoming space that celebrates the local area and helps reduce the stigma surrounding cannabis,” Palmateer added. “There’s still a lot of negative perception around cannabis, and we want to show that it’s just like buying a bottle of wine for your dinner party—except safer and more regulated.”
THTree’s products will be pre-packaged, rigorously tested, and come with a certificate of analysis to ensure consumers know exactly what they’re getting.
“The state takes testing very seriously, which is one of the big advantages of legal cannabis,” said Palmateer. “Everything we sell will be lab-tested, free from harmful substances, and of the highest quality, giving customers peace of mind compared to the black market.”
While on-site consumption will not be offered initially, due to current regulations, Palmateer noted this could change as local laws evolve.
“It’s similar to how package liquor stores work—you buy your product here, and you enjoy it responsibly at home,” she explained. However, Palmateer speculates that the town of Coxsackie may opt in for on-site consumption in the future.
The business has generated a wave of local excitement, and the owners have worked closely with Coxsackie’s town board and planning officials throughout the process.
“The community response has been overwhelmingly positive,” Palmateer said. “We made sure to present our business plan at town meetings, even though the state didn’t require us to do that. We wanted the town to see who we are and what our vision is, and everyone—from town officials to residents—has been supportive.”
In addition to its contribution to the local cannabis market, THTree is expected to have a significant economic impact. The state imposes a 13% cannabis tax, with 4% going directly back to the town of Coxsackie, a significant boost for local revenues.
“That’s huge for a town like Coxsackie,” Palmateer said. “Even with our most conservative sales projections, we’re looking at a sizable contribution to the town’s budget.”
THTree plans to offer a wide range of cannabis products, from affordable entry-level options to premium selections, catering to different customer needs and budgets.
“Not everyone is going to want the most expensive products, so we’re making sure to stock a vibrant selection that serves a diverse group of customers,” Palmateer said. “The size of our space allows us to carry more variety than many other dispensaries.”
Palmateer and Weidman will personally operate the dispensary, alongside a management team with years of experience in compliance and the cannabis industry. One of their managers brings over eight years of experience in New York’s hemp and medical cannabis sectors.
“Our team’s experience is going to be a huge asset. We’re committed to offering not only high-quality products but also excellent service and expert advice,” Palmateer said.
As the grand opening approaches, the buzz surrounding THTree continues to build. Though the exact opening date has yet to be officially announced, updates will be provided through THTree’s Instagram account, @THTreeNY. The owners are also planning a grand opening event to celebrate the launch, which is expected to be a major draw for the community.
Beyond its immediate impact, THTree’s launch represents a shift in both the local economy and the evolving perception of cannabis in Greene County. For many, the dispensary is seen as a symbol of progress in both business and public health.
“We’re incredibly excited to be the first recreational dispensary in Greene County,” Palmateer said. “This is just the beginning of a new era for the area, and we’re thrilled to be a part of it.”
For more information and updates, follow THTree on Instagram or stay tuned for announcements about their upcoming grand opening.